First regulation, after water, how to buy a house after all?
Open year to rescue the city, the property market to fly?This week, the central bank released financial data for January.M2, social finance, a lot of data.Among them, M2 increased by 9.8%, the first growth since March 2021.Suddenly, the gate opened!Water!The rescue!The Shouting was great!This matter, I tell you carefully, do not get on the wrong bus.Point, line, surface, this is a game of chess Setp01. Regulation before, release of water after regulation is regulation, release of water is release of water, there is no necessary causal logic!Why do you say that?Regulation: based on the transformation of industrial structure.– To put it bluntly, do not want the real estate this bastard child.Water: hope to activate the market.– The key is to reverse expectations and increase confidence.So, see water, say to save real estate this bastard son, too early!This year the water, there was a very unexpected scene!Let me give you a little detail!Start with M2: New yuan loans in January were close to $4 trillion.For a time, many media high up, because ~ – once four trillion memory is too deep – four trillion, have been conditioned reflex so, many media saw the arm thought of naked, immediately thought of genitals.See four trillion!You want to save the market!Groaning from the high!The reality is that M2 is not enough.I’ll give you an example, which may not be accurate, but it’s straightforward.Mother lent you money, let you take money out slag, to the loser, want to spend how!– You take the money, look around, too many ugly women very desperate, and give the money back to his mother.The point is, the money’s out. Where’s it going?In January, M1 fell by 1.9% year on year, which was the first negative growth in China’s history.You know, your real mom pays you to suck.But you don’t have any sex with the money, you find yourself surrounded by ugly people, and you’re even more afraid that ugly people will find out that you have the money and put it back.Money, running on empty!Setp02. Confidence is yellow money, why will empty run?Investment is going on, but demand is falling!The key to reduced demand is pessimism!Because of the pessimism, companies take the money and don’t expand generation, but save it.Because of pessimism, people cover their pockets not to consume, can not spend not to spend.According to Maoyan, a total of 114 million tickets were issued for the 2022 Spring Festival, down 28.8 percent from 160 million tickets for the same period in 2021.– The average ticket price was 52.8 yuan, up 8.2 percent from 48.8 yuan for the same period in 2021.About a third fewer people went to the cinema and ticket prices had to rise.What’s happening now is that — as everything gets more expensive — there’s no confidence in everything. Imported inflation last year, a tank of 98 gasoline cost 30 percent more.Now the property market, the stock market, are depressed.Take second-hand houses for example.Nationwide 50 cities second-hand housing market sentiment continues to decline.(data source: Zhuge looking for housing) selling house owners, in the heart is expected to have finished calf.Each is ~ — health, do not fall to sell not to go out!From this dimension, under pessimistic expectations, the second-hand housing market in the short term, is still stable in the fall ah!Shenzhen more than 17 million people, the Spring Festival seven days only one second-hand home transaction.Shenzhen property market completely decadent!– New homes, land auction housing sales prices down.– Second-hand, price limit raised down payment blocked circulation Qianhai Guiwan plot, Shenzhen, reduced by 7000 yuan /㎡.Second-hand housing market, it is to guide the price clinched a deal.Policy accurate, price limit fine.Shenzhen property market thoroughly tied!The housing market collapsed, the stock market became cancerous, and there were no good projects to invest in.Men who cheat and play with women’s feelings want to suck, but there are ugly people everywhere!Loan to get the money, unfortunately, everywhere is depressed!Why is that?In addition to D ‘Ao’s Bingdudun and Gu Ailing, the recent market has no good news ~ — Guangzhou’s largest local enterprise Cedar Holdings financial default — Shimao Group facing bankruptcy restructuring — civil servants pay cut — A share mudslide………I think maybe disbanding the men’s football team will boost the market. What do you think of the current banks? In order to lend money out, they all start KPI assessment.– Awarding special expenses for operating loans and mortgages.Friends at the bank say this has never happened in the last 20 years.With all that said, does anyone see anything wrong?Money, come out!!Looking at the stock market dross drop, housing market short short poor, turned a circle, money went home again.Mom and dad say, “I’ve tried to pay, look!M2 rose ah, “the son and father said,” I also work hard slag, are ugly female, can’t do it, look!M1 minus “Now the situation is, the dragon king rain, you take the basin to catch the rain.But I don’t know what to do with it!Setp03, confidence into gold now, not lack of money, is confidence so, how to boost confidence.Boost demand and consumption, and companies will automatically expand production, but slow down!- cut interest rates, no longer low interest rates, the cost of enterprise capital down, benefits, quick ah!Lower the credit barrier, lower the cost of loans, all kinds of incentives, so that you can take your money out.Before, heavy hammer real estate, the local debt and city investment debt threshold down.We will advance approval of 1.79 trillion yuan in local government bonds and 3 trillion yuan in infrastructure investment.Go, all of you…Money, print…Money, put it out…What does the future hold?RRR cut and interest rate cut: This year, RRR cut and interest rate cut must happen.Cheap money: Money is floating around right now, both because of market opportunity and because of cost.Mom says to son, “Take the money out of the house, no interest.” Wait for it, borrowing costs, they’re going to hit record lows.Since your parents and parents have told you to spend money to go out, do you want to go out?Listen to my advice!Hide in the shell: ONE of my friends, in Shenzhen Futian Excellence own a floor, before the business is ok, every time to see, people come and go, thriving.This year, the first thing to open the year, ready to dissolve the company, the office rented out.If you think about it, they’re shrinking, they don’t even want to dry the sink.You expand, who’s going to consume that?Shrink and hide in the shell.Victory belongs to the optimist: the pessimist is often right, the optimist is often successful.The chart below shows the relationship between the money scissors difference (M1-M2) and the CSI 300 index.Every time the M1-M2 spread, two or three months after it hit its all-time low, before the 1996 stock market boom, the M1-M2 growth spread hit -15%;Before the stock market rose in 2006, the growth gap between M1-M2 reached -8%;Before the rebound in the first half of 2009, the gap between M1-M2 growth was about -13%.This time, A shares can red through half the sky, and wait two months to know.Property dimension, in the regulation of the set, temporarily can not see the big market.Let’s look at the historical relationship between M1 growth and housing price growth.Looking back on the historical trend of M1, it resonates with the sales speed of commercial housing.The current M1 data can only show that “real estate is still ugly”. Looking at the present from the future: Why should we regulate it?Why are we hammering property?– We need industrial restructuring, common prosperity, income distribution reform, real estate tax, dual carbon, digital economy, and so on.Because, to give all people a better future, everything you do now, is to prepare for a better future.Therefore, every man of the deep tide must walk with his head down and see the things before him.Look up to the sky, 10 or 20 years in the future, and look at the present.A house should be sold or bought in 10 or 20 years’ time.Instead of looking at the future from the present!Pay attention to our release oh, will update all kinds of signals to you in time!